“The Donald” has finally announced this candidacy for the Presidency. He is one of nearly 20 candidates vying for the Republican nomination. As a political scientist, I am aware that it is nearly impossible for him to win his party’s nomination, let alone the general election. The fundamentals of presidential elections are fairly decent at predicting presidential election outcomes, sometimes before the election even begins, especially when you factor aggregating polls into the forecasting model. You can see the research here, here, here, here, and here. Having said that, I think I can say fairly confidently that he will not be the president beginning in 2017. Even though a Suffolk University poll has him in second place in New Hampshire, it is one poll in one state. At most, it might prolong the inevitable demise of his campaign. And yet, there is no way to fully predict elections due to the vicissitudes of politics and pertinent events that may transpire in the future.
So, I can’t help but wonder, what if he actually won? What would a Trump Administration look like? Here are few, quick thoughts about what it might look like.
1. He was at the forefront of the absurd attempt to delegitimize President Obama’s citizenship. How would that play out after he assumed the presidency after Obama? Would he not follow/honor what Obama had done as president?
2. He has been known to say, “I have made the tough decisions, always with an eye toward the bottom line. Perhaps it’s time America was run like a business.” Trump has repeatedly skirted responsibility for his terrible and risky decision-making in many business deals, currently owning 4 corporate bankruptcies. Yet, he has mostly been immune from the consequences of those decisions because of bankruptcy law. Imagine if he had the protections of Executive Privilege to delay the necessary elements of transparency. He wouldn’t be the first.
Moreover, while in office, he would have immunity from any decision he made. That is a legal protection for the president. Remember when Nixon said, “When the President does it, it’s not illegal”? That is essentially true, according to the Supreme Court. Of course there is some debate about what prosecution would/could happen after he left office. However, one just needs to think about how President Bush’s actions pertaining to the detention and torture ‘enhanced interrogations’ of enemy combatants have been perceived at home and abroad. Some legitimate organizations such as the ACLU want to launch an in-depth investigation into his alleged war crimes and President Obama has simply said, “We need to look forward, as opposed to backwards.” Prosecuting a president after leaving office would be incredibly difficult. Even if prosecution were to take place, it is highly likely that the next president would simply pardon him, as Ford did for Nixon.
3. To get a better picture of how Trump might handle some if the more delicate aspects of the presidency such as the art of diplomatic relations, we can look at how he has historically handled some tense and public disagreements with other strong personalities in the past. This is the only measure we have because he has not held any public office.
- Rosie O’Donnell: She said a few things about his personal life and his business life that he did not like. He not only threatened to sue her and take money from her, but he called her a “loser” and a “big, fat pig” on multiple occasions.
- Martha Stewart: In an open letter, he wrote a harsh criticism of her work. It is not the same caliber as his bullying of Rosie O’Donnell, but it was far from diplomatic.
- Mark Cuban: Trump has few insults and personal attacks for Cuban on Twitter. The heated exchange can be found here.
- Barack Obama: More importantly, it is well documented on twitter how he has talked to and about President Obama (Birth Certificate, College Transcript, Mental Health). Is this how he would try to negotiate with other Heads of State? Would he dangle Foreign Aid to other countries as a condition.
I can’t help but wonder what type of “Rhetorical Presidency” he would have. What would such statements do to international relations with Russia, China, Iran, etc.?
4. His historical record on race and racial tensions is concerning. How would he handle the public problems and issues associate with race in public policy?
- In 1973, he was sued by the Justice Department for racial discrimination for not renting to African Americans.
- He has repeatedly claimed that the most of the crime committed is by “Blacks and Hispanics”.
Would his approach to race and crime have a significant impact on the policy problems that we face today in incarceration and health care?
5. Univision media did something that Trump did not like and he responded by banning all employees from visiting his hotel in Miami. Could we see this as a foreshadowing of how he would handle the media’s criticism of his presidency? After negative articles or the major networks not giving him the time he wanted to speak to the nation, would he then ban said media outlets from the White House? NBC has now cut ties with him. Are they next?
6. Trump has in/famously said, “I don’t have to be politically correct. I don’t have to be a nice person. Like I watch some of these weak-kneed politicians, it’s disgusting. I don’t have to be that way.” I assume that he means the ‘weak-kneed politicians’ have a bit of self-control as it pertains to what comes out of their mouth. Would he become one of those ‘weak-kneed politicians’ after assuming the presidency?
The constraints constitutionally embedded into the Office of the Presidency are incredibly important. They were debated by serious people and ratified in a democratic manner. These constraints are just as the important as the constraints public opinion imposes upon the president. The need to constrain political behavior due to the necessity of reelection and historical legacy reduces the negative outcomes associated with the boisterous overbearing personalities that are uninhibited by their wealth and status in public life. As Neustadt said, the presidency is no place for amateurs. They must be able to bargain if they are to be successful. Presidents have to be serious people with serious approaches to public problems. They cannot be bloviating ignoramuses.
I think the moral of the story is that ELECTIONS MATTER!
P.S.
I thought it might be fun to think about his presidency in a less serious way.
I think that vetting female candidates for office to be appointed to the Administration or Judiciary, which would be a rare occurrence, would only take place after the potential candidate has secured a top three placement in a Miss America Type Pageant. In fact, the rules for women in a Trump Administration will be the same as the rules for the Miss America Pageant.
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*The image is taken from Wikimedia Commons, a “media file repository making available public domain and freely-licensed educational media content.” The photograph is of Republican Presidential Candidate, Donald Trump. The Photo was taken by Gage Skidmore [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons. The file can be found here.
C. Damien Arthur 